Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower
Texas Coast early Saturday morning.
...Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak
moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will
advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In
response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen
boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak
surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast
overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the
higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal
convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a
couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time
frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should
limit updraft intensity over land areas.
..Weinman.. 12/12/2025
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