Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the
Florida Panhandle late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance eastward from the
central Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MS Valley through the period.
To the south of this predominant feature, a subtle/low-amplitude
impulse will track east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states
-- gradually phasing with the aforementioned trough late in the
period. As this phasing occurs, low-level south-southwesterly flow
will strengthen beneath a belt of 50-kt midlevel westerly flow in
the 06-12Z time frame -- with the strongest low-level mass response
focusing over the Florida Panhandle. In the low-levels, an
increasingly defined frontal wave will develop eastward along an
east/west-oriented marine front draped along the immediate central
Gulf Coast -- approaching the western FL Panhandle by around 08-09Z
(with varying timing/placement among the latest model guidance).
...Florida Panhandle...
As the frontal wave evolves eastward in the vicinity of the FL
Panhandle, most guidance depicts middle/upper 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints overspreading the immediate coast between 08-12Z. Forecast
soundings suggest 67-68F dewpoints will yield weak surface-based
buoyancy over the coast. Any offshore supercells/organized clusters
that can move/develop into this weak (albeit sufficient)
surface-based buoyancy amid enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs will pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind risk over
the immediate coast. Despite a potentially limited spatial/temporal
overlap between the surface-based buoyancy and favorable low-level
shear, 2-percent tornado and 5-percent wind probabilities are
warranted where this overlap should be maximized ahead of the
frontal wave.
..Weinman.. 12/01/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TPYSZS
