Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern
Carolinas.
...Florida/Southern Georgia/Eastern Carolinas...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move eastward into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front advances
eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward
into the eastern Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the
60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this airmass during the
day, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near any thermal axis
or zone of low-level convergence that develops. In spite of only
weak instability, mid-level flow will increase across the southern
Atlantic Seaboard due to the approaching trough. This is evident on
RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon which increase 0-6 km shear
into the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, forecast soundings across
the southern Atlantic Seaboard have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg
with 0-3 km lapse rates becoming steep by late afternoon. This
should support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. A potential for hail is also expected to develop. The
marginal severe threat may continue into the early evening, mainly
across north-central Florida where instability is forecast to be the
strongest.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/09/2025
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