Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the day along the
western Oregon and far northern California coastal region. Strong,
potentially damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger showers
or low-topped thunderstorms that develop over parts of the
Northeast.
...Northeast/southern New England...
A trough will steadily amplify southeastward today over the Great
Lakes and Ontario/Quebec, reaching coastal New England tonight. A
considerably strengthening deep-layer wind field will accompany this
trough, accentuated by 80+ kt mid-level winds late today. A surface
low will steady deepen (approaching 1 mb/hr tonight) as it races
eastward across the lower Great Lakes toward coastal New England
tonight in tandem with a cold front.
Near-frontal/warm sector moisture will be meager, and surface-based
buoyancy will also be limited. Even so, modest diurnal
heating/destabilization could influence somewhat more stout
low-topped convection into late afternoon, and sustain into the
evening given the magnitude of the forcing for ascent/large-scale
mass response. Around 40-60 kt of west-southwesterly flow within the
lowest 1-2 km AGL will be present from roughly central Pennsylvania
to southern New England. As such, any stronger showers (or perhaps
short-lived low-topped thunderstorms) that can develop may encourage
sufficient downward momentum transport for a few strong, potentially
damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.
...Northern California and Oregon Coasts...
As the mid-level trough overspreads the northern California/Oregon
coast this morning and a cold front moves inland, cooler
temperatures aloft will foster steep mid-level lapse rates atop a
maritime airmass, resulting in a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Through
the afternoon, rapidly strengthening winds with height will be in
place, resulting in enlarged but mostly straight/elongated
hodographs. Any thunderstorms that manage to develop will be capable
of isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings do show
some low-level curvature closer to the coast, with 150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH. As such, if a sustained, land-falling low-topped
supercell can develop, a brief tornado could occur.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/05/2025
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