Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Tue Nov 04 2025
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the
California and Oregon coasts early Wednesday morning. Organized
severe storms are not expected.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made to reflect trends in recent high-res guidance. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 11/04/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Stable conditions will prevail across the majority of the CONUS as
surface high pressure persists across the Southeast and a surface
low/cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. The only exception is
along the southern OR and northern CA coasts. Here, a shortwave
trough rotating through the base of a larger cyclone is expected to
approach the region early tomorrow morning. Strong forcing for
ascent and related cooling mid-level temperatures could result in
some deeper convective cores within the frontal band preceding the
shortwave. Some of these may briefly be deep enough to produce
sporadic lightning along the immediate coast.
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