Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern
Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving through the Upper
Great Lakes region and the other moving into the Upper Midwest, will
pivot eastward/northeastward today, with the second shortwave ending
the period extended from eastern Quebec through New England. Farther
west, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the
Great Basin. Evolution of these waves will promote continued upper
troughing across the western and central CONUS while the eastern
CONUS trends more zonal.
At the surface, a low associated with the Upper Great Lakes
shortwave is currently centered over Lower MI. An extensive cold
front extends southward from this low into northern KY before
shifting more southwestward and continuing to another surface low
just off the South TX Coast. The primary surface low is forecast to
progress northeastward across southeastern Ontario and eastern
Quebec while occluding throughout the day. As it does, northern and
central portions of the cold front will make steady
eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, likely extending
from southern New England through the Carolina Piedmont by 00Z.
Southern portion of the front will also move eastward, but more
slowly, as a weak frontal low moves eastward along the immediate
central Gulf Coast.
Dry and stable conditions associated with a cold continental airmass
will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the immediate
western/central Gulf Coast, where moderate low-level moisture
remains in place ahead of the cold front and/or surface low. A few
isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the southern/eastern
FL Peninsula amid moderate low-level moisture and weakly convergent
low-level easterly flow. Lastly, a few flashes could occur within
any deeper convection over central UT as the Great Basin shortwave
trough progresses across the region.
..Mosier/Dean.. 11/30/2025
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