Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of
east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana tonight.
...Southeast TX and western LA...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Plains lifting
into the Midwest and western Great Lakes this evening. Ascent
attendant to the trough was passing over parts of southeast TX and
western LA. A surface low over KS will continue to deepen as it
lifts northward into the Midwest this evening. Southerly low-level
flow along the TX coast will continue transporting a partially
modified Gulf air mass northward ahead of a strong cold front
trailing the low. This front will surge south, gradually shrinking
the already confined warm sector over the southeastern TX Coastal
Plain tonight.
Within the shrinking warm sector, scattered showers and a few weak
thunderstorms may slowly intensify with continued low-level warm
advection over east/southeast TX and far western LA. Around 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE will support occasional stronger updrafts despite
only modest mid-level lapse rates and nebulous ascent. Veering
low-level hodographs could support weak updraft rotation with the
strongest cells. A brief tornado, marginal hail and occasional
strong gusts are possible, especially near a diffuse warm front
across east TX and far western LA. These storms will persist tonight
and eventually merge with the cold front moving south.
Isolated thunderstorms along the front over north TX should continue
to increase in coverage as the front surges south into more robust
surface moisture. Current guidance shows these storms eventually
merging with the warm sector convection and moving offshore between
10-12z Sunday. While surface temperatures should gradually cool this
evening, sufficient moisture and weak buoyancy will maintain a risk
for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail with the stronger cores.
This appears most likely near the coast where the front will be less
likely to undercut ongoing convection. The severe risk will quickly
decrease into early Sunday as the front and remaining warm sector
are pushed offshore.
..Lyons.. 11/30/2025
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