Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.
...Northeast States...
A progressive shortwave trough will modestly amplify as it steadily
progresses east-southeastward over the Great Lakes and
Ontario/Quebec through tonight. Strengthening deep-layer winds will
accompany this trough as a cold front also advances
east-southeastward regionally. While seasonably cool temperatures
will be prevalent, cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally
steepening low-level lapse rates will support increasing low-topped
convection near the pre-frontal trough/front from mid-afternoon into
this evening across upstate New York, and potentially into parts of
northern New England. Some of this convection will probably be deep
enough and thermodynamically conducive for charge separation and
isolated lightning flashes. Some stronger convectively enhanced wind
gusts may also occur given 35-45 kt winds within the lowest 2-3 km
AGL. But current thinking is that organized severe potential should
remain low given the marginal thermodynamic environment.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/03/2025
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