Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
central Alabama.
...MS/AL/GA...
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west
TN/northern MS. Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has
resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA.
These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air
mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s. This should limit
downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of
gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours.
In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow
gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into
east-central MS and central/northern AL. Large-scale forcing will
be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be
sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by
early afternoon. Those storms that form will be in an environment
of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient
deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures.
Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak
forcing mechanisms. Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are
the main concern.
..Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025
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