Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly over parts of Arizona
and into New Mexico tonight. Severe weather is not forecast,
although small hail cannot be ruled out.
...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening ahead of an upper low
moving across northern Baja CA, affecting much of southern into
eastern AZ. Area soundings and objective analysis indicate a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE is present, though primarily elevated in nature.
All this is occurring within a deep southerly flow regime, with
moderate deep layer shear. Any embedded cellular activity may
produce small hail given cold profiles aloft.
As cooling aloft spreads further into NM overnight, additional rain
and elevated thunderstorms will develop over the area. Forecast
soundings indicate favorable deep-layer shear will persist, with
midlevel moistening above an initially dry boundary layer. Again,
minimal/small hail will be possible given cold air aloft and
favorable shear for cellular storm mode.
..Jewell.. 11/23/2025
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