Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...FAR
NORTHWEST LA...
...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or
two remain possible this evening from parts of the southern Plains
into Arkansas.
...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
Multiple areas of convection are ongoing across parts of the
southern Plains this evening, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough
that will continue to eject northeastward tonight. The greatest
remaining severe threat appears to reside from parts of
south-central into northeast TX, where MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
and strong deep-layer shear remain in place immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. At least transient supercell structures will be
possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind
and possibly marginal hail. Modest enhancement of low-level
hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2) could support a brief
tornado threat. Some uptick in the damaging-wind threat could occur
with any upscale growth, before convection weakens as it encounters
diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent. See MCD 2216 for more
information regarding the short-term threat in this area.
Some storm redevelopment will be possible late tonight across
central TX, as an initially quasi-stationary boundary begins to move
eastward as a cold front. Buoyancy and deep-layer will remain
sufficient for some storm organization, and an isolated severe
threat could persist across this region overnight.
..Dean.. 11/21/2025
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