Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.
No changes were made to the previous forecast.
..Hart.. 11/02/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid/upper-level low centered over the TN Valley this morning will
continue moving east-southeastward toward the coastal Southeast
through tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures (-20 C or colder at 500
mb) will accompany this upper low, with filtered boundary-layer
heating preceding it across the Cumberland Plateau toward the
southern Appalachians. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates should
allow surface-based parcels to reach their convective temperatures
this afternoon. This may support isolated thunderstorm development
across parts of northeast AL/northern GA and eastern portions of
KY/TN. Small hail could occur with these low-topped thunderstorms
given the cold temperature profiles aloft.
Late tonight, a weak surface wave is forecast to develop off the
coast of the Carolinas. A warmer/more moist airmass should advance
toward the coast with this low. It still appears likely that the
surface-based warm sector will remain focused offshore. But, a few
stronger thunderstorms could approach the immediate NC Coast/Outer
Banks late tonight/early Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms may
also occur through the period across portions of south FL and the
Keys along/near a remnant front.
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