Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners states
today and parts of California mainly late tonight. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second upper
trough, with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the Interior
West today. The first of the two mid-level impulses will approach
the Rockies while the second impulse impinges on the CA coastline,
especially late in the period. Cooler temperatures aloft, associated
with each impulse, will overspread both the central/southern Rockies
and the CA coast, resulting in scant buoyancy. While instability
will be meager in both regions, strong deep-layer ascent with the
aforementioned buoyancy may support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development today into tonight.
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