Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Isolated
thunderstorms remain possible over parts of southern CA this evening
and into early Saturday. Severe weather is unlikely given the very
weak buoyancy and shallow nature of convection. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 11/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025/
...Discussion...
Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a
southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly
approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight
negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase
toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the
approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very
weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped
convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge
separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and
moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and
early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but
south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through
mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher
terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal
instability and weak low-level shear.
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