Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the majority
of the U.S. today. Isolated weak activity may affect parts of
southern California into Saturday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be just off the West Coast Friday
morning, with an offshore upper low translating southward through
the period. A stronger disturbance is forecast to rotate around the
base of this trough into Saturday morning, with midlevel winds
increasing and becoming nearly southerly as cooling aloft
approaches.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen late in the period off the
coast of southern CA and toward the Channel Islands. Precipitation
will increase in coverage at that time, with a few lightning flashes
possible mainly offshore. Low-level wind fields and shear will be
modest, and SBCAPE should remain near zero through 12Z Saturday over
land. As such, overall thunderstorm activity should be minimal over
land.
Elsewhere, an upper ridge will temporarily exist from the southern
Plains into the Great Lakes before the base of a broadening upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. High
pressure over the southeast combined with strongly veering low-level
winds should keep conditions stable over those areas through 12Z
Saturday.
..Jewell/Moore.. 11/14/2025
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