Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight/early tomorrow. No severe threat is forecast
across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
A series of shortwave troughs will move from the Upper Midwest/Upper
Great Lakes through the Northeast, within the base of an upper
trough that extends across much of eastern Canada and the northeast
CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will shift eastward through
the Intermountain West to the Rockies, ahead of a strong cyclone
forecast to approach the West Coast Thursday morning.
Modest southerly low-level flow will result in limited moisture
return across central/east TX and LA, with low 60s dewpoints
covering much of the TX Coastal Plain by tomorrow morning. Even so,
warm temperatures aloft and negligible forcing for ascent will
preclude any thunderstorms.
A frontal band associated with the West Coast cyclone will approach
the northern CA Coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Increasing
mid-level moisture will support modest buoyancy and the potential
for a few deeper convective cores, both within the band itself and
in the showers preceding it, as large-scale ascent spreads across
the region.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/12/2025
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