Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of western
and central New Mexico.
...Western and Central New Mexico...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place today
from the Desert Southwest into the southern High Plains. Heights
will gradually rise over the southern Rockies today, as a shortwave
ridge moves across the region. At the surface, upslope easterly
winds will be in place across much of New Mexico, with surface
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F over much of southern and central New
Mexico. In west-central New Mexico, along the western edge of this
low-level moisture, a north-to-south axis of instability is forecast
to develop in the late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will form
within this corridor of instability, with a relatively small cluster
moving eastern into central New Mexico during the late afternoon and
early evening.
RAP forecast soundings in the late afternoon to the west of
Albuquerque have MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 40
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast between 7 and 7.5 C/km
with 500 mb temperatures of -10 to -11C. This should be favorable
for hail with the stronger rotating cells that develop near the
instability axis. Steep lapse rates in the boundary layer may also
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. However, the
rising mid-level heights will be a limiting factor, and for that
reason any severe threat is expected to remain marginal.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/07/2025
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