Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions
of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
The only change with this update was a minor southward expansion of
the MRGL risk area into the OK/TX Panhandles. Here, the latest
surface observations indicate middle 50s dewpoints ahead of the
front, which should support sufficient surface-based buoyancy for an
isolated/brief strong-severe storm risk -- given 30-40 kt of
effective shear and a nocturnally strengthening LLJ. Marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary concerns with
any sustained storms this evening. Elsewhere, the forecast remains
on track. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Weinman.. 10/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025/
...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and
the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western
Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track
northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance
south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains
through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are
expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm
temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of
any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along
much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN
southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet
gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly
undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to
the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE
and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to
remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.
Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this
activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore
from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak
mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level
flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak
low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL
Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to
persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears
too low to include any severe probabilities.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TNVFb1
