Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains late this afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains...
Notable short-wave trough, currently located over eastern WY/CO,
will eject into the upper Red River Valley by the start of the day1
period, then advance into northwest ON by early evening. This
evolution will result in weak height rises across much of the
Rockies into the central High Plains, though seasonally strong
southwesterly 500mb flow will extend across KS at peak heating. In
the wake of the ejecting short wave, surface pressures will rise
across the northern/central High Plains which will force a sharp
cold front into southeast NE-central/southwestern KS by 06/00z.
Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating across
the southern High Plains into southwest KS, immediately ahead of the
wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit steep low-level lapse rates
(>9 C/km in the 0-3km layer) and convective temperatures should be
breached by 22-23z. Isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the
boundary, and frontal lift may also contribute to some elevated
convection by late evening/overnight hours. While instability is not
expected to be that significant, strong deep-layer shear and an
increasing LLJ during the evening favor some organizational
potential along the frontal zone. Hail/wind are the primary
concerns.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/05/2025
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