Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Storms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across parts of eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia...
A mid-level low will move into the Tennessee Valley today, as a jet
streak in the base of the system translates through the Gulf Coast
states. Diffluent mid-level flow associated with the exit region of
the jet will overspread the southern Atlantic Coastal states
Wednesday evening. The core of the jet will move eastward across the
Carolinas Wednesday night. In response, a low will develop over
southern North Carolina after midnight, moving northeastward into
eastern North Carolina by early Thursday morning. Low-level
convergence near the surface low and large-scale ascent along the
eastern edge of the mid-level jet streak will provide support for
isolated thunderstorm development. In addition to the strong flow
aloft, a jet max near 850 mb will translate eastward across eastern
North Carolina and eastern Virginia late in the period.
Thunderstorms that develop in proximity to the low-level jet could
mix the stronger winds to the surface, resulting in an isolated
wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/29/2025
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