Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight from
central Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...TX-LA...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the
southern High Plains and it is forecast to move east across much of
OK by early Sunday morning. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow (40-60 kt)
will move through the base of the larger scale trough over TX and
eventually moving into the lower MS Valley. An ongoing MCS across
southwestern LA and the northwest Gulf of America will likely
progress eastward across southern LA through early afternoon. An
isolated risk for damaging gusts (55-65 mph) and a brief tornado may
continue east but be increasingly confined to the coastal parishes
as the squall line's eastward movement outpaces appreciable inland
destabilization.
High uncertainty is apparent farther west across central into east
and coastal portions of TX. Earlier shower/thunderstorm activity
across much of the mid and upper coastal plain of TX has rendered
substantial convective overturning of the airmass from the coastal
plain northwestward towards the I-35 corridor north of a composite
outflow boundary. Models vary regarding destabilization and this
signal in model data is congruent with forecaster experience in
placing low confidence in potential storm evolution later this
afternoon into the evening across central and east TX. Nonetheless,
there will probably exist a window of opportunity for diurnal
destabilization arcing around the south and west portions of the
mesoscale surface high. Some forecast soundings show moderate
instability in the presence of strong mid to high-level westerly
flow---supporting supercells and storm organization with
accompanying potential for damaging gusts.
Have adjusted the northern bounds of tornado probabilities farther
south in closer proximity to richer moisture, and removed 15-percent
hail probabilities across southeast TX and LA where lapse rates will
likely remain stunted through early Sunday morning. The tornado
risk correspondingly will tend to favor any supercell development in
proximity to richer moisture and mesovortex structures within parent
QLCSs, but low confidence exists regarding this forecast given
aforementioned convective-related concerns.
...Pacific Northwest...
A mid-level trough, and an associated plume of moisture, will move
eastward into the Pacific Northwest today. Strong large-scale
ascent will be favorable for thunderstorm development along the
coast of Washington and Oregon. A brief tornado risk could develop
near the immediate coast and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible as cells move inland. Farther east into parts of southeast
Washington and far northeast Oregon, thunderstorm development will
be possible late this afternoon with perhaps isolated severe gusts
associated with the stronger thunderstorms.
..Smith/Weinman.. 10/25/2025
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