Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
mainly this afternoon through this evening. Large hail, severe
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.
...Texas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO. This upper feature
is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains
by daybreak Saturday. A belt of moderately strong southwesterly
500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over
Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX. Morning
surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the
Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and
northward through western OK. An ill-defined cold front extends
from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM. The northwestern rim
of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface
dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and
into the eastern TX Panhandle.
Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this
morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist
advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX.
The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift
slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists
through the period. A somewhat nebulous boundary (best
characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will
probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected
to develop later today. Some modest heating in wake of early
showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite
rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover. A gradual
development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this
afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization.
Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles
favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm
mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms
of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this
time. All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be
more common with linear activity. Convection should easily advance
beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of
TX by early Saturday morning.
..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025
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