Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon into the
overnight hours across the southern Great Plains.
...Southern Plains...
A well-defined shortwave trough continues to push eastward through
the Four Corners and Southwest this morning. Expectation is for this
trough to extend from western CO southwestward through northwest NM
and eastern AZ by early tomorrow morning. Enhanced mid-level flow
associated with this trough will expand eastward into the southern
High Plains by early this evening, with continued expansion into
more of the southern Plains expected overnight.
Mass response and modest surface cyclogenesis ahead of this
shortwave will result in strengthening low-level flow throughout the
day, with 60s dewpoints likely reaching northwest TX and southwest
OK by 21Z. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated into the
southern High Plains as well, but will be offset by strong
heating/deep boundary-layer mixing. Late-afternoon dewpoints across
the Permian Basin/TX South Plains will likely be in the mid 50s. The
resulting discontinuity in the moisture (and temperature) fields may
result in low-level convergence, although this convergence should be
relatively modest given the diffuse character of the boundary and
generally modest cyclogenesis. Even so, this convergence could be
enough for convective initiation, particularly given its
persistence. The best location for initial convective initiation
appears to be in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity where the
best overlap between low-level convergence, low-level moisture, and
steep mid-level lapse rates exists. How this initial development
evolves in uncertain, but there is some potential for a few
supercells. Large hail is possible with any supercells early, with a
trend towards more wind gusts as these storms become outflow
dominant. Tornado risk will be limited by relatively weak low-level
flow and higher storm bases, but a low-probability threat still
exists given the increase vorticity near the boundary.
Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase significantly
during the evening amid a combination of an increasing large-scale
ascent and a strengthening low-level jet. This should largely favor
elevated storm modes, with hail as the primary risk. That being
said, increasing low-level moisture with eastern extent could result
in trends towards more surface-based character and potentially a few
stronger gusts. However, the more linear/clustered mode should keep
the tornado risk low.
...NM and southern CO...
Diurnally-driven storms will likely develop in closer proximity to
the mid-level cold pocket over the southern Rockies. An isolated
threat for marginally severe hail/wind is possible with this
activity before subsiding during the evening.
..Mosier/Moore.. 10/23/2025
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