Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will increase later tonight across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not expected.
...01z Update...
Nocturnal cooling is contributing to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS early this evening. 00z soundings support
this with only meager instability observed at UNR within a steep
low-level lapse rate environment. South FL soundings continue to
exhibit modest buoyancy but lightning trends are definitively down.
This trend is expected to continue over the next few hours.
Later tonight, elevated instability will increase across the lower
MS Valley. Weak convection is expected to develop across this region
along/ahead of a surging frontal zone. Forecast soundings do not
appear particularly favorable for large hail and severe
probabilities will not be introduced.
..Darrow.. 10/21/2025
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