Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.
...20Z Update...
Only minor updates were made to the general thunderstorm forecast.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. See the
previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 10/16/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/
...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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