Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.
...20Z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. Overall, weak thermodynamics
will likely limit the coverage of more intense storms. Marginally
greater surface moisture is noted near the Palmer Divide. This could
be a local corridor where a stronger, marginal supercell could
evolve later this afternoon. See the previous discussion for
additional information.
..Wendt.. 10/15/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/
...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western
trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern
Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will
overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the
vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front
oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during
the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from
the lee low into central/eastern NM.
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing
southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F.
Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak
destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the
higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated
cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO.
Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with
a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur.
Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening,
eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY
and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE
and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may
continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the
evening/nighttime hours.
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