Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm risk appears negligible today.
...Southwestern U.S...
Large-scale upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over
northeast Mexico into TX through the day1 period as a strong upper
low digs south along the Pacific Northwest Coast. This flow regime
will ensure modest-strong southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest a favorably moist trajectory across northwest Mexico into
AZ. Seasonally high PW air mass will hold near the international
border, but forecast soundings also suggest lapse rates should
remain poor - though sufficient for at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by
afternoon. With minimal CINH, convective temperatures will easily be
breached and isolated-scattered thunderstorms should readily
develop. While a few storms may exhibit some weak rotation at times,
current thinking is this environment is not particularly conducive
for more than sub-marginal wind gusts with the most robust
convection.
...Elsewhere...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the upper MS Valley in
advance of a strong short-wave trough, and along/near the Atlantic
Coast in association with a cyclone that is lifting north, just
offshore. Poor instability across these regions do not support
severe thunderstorms.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/12/2025
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