Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread south across southwestern
Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle this evening.
Large hail is the primary risk.
...01z Update...
Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the southwestern
flank of a short-wave trough as it digs across eastern KS/northern
OK. The most robust activity is occurring along the eastern fringe
of an instability corridor that extends across the High Plains. 00z
soundings from AMA and DDC support this with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Wind profiles also support organized rotating updrafts and storm
motions favor this convection driving primarily due south,
especially given the orientation of the instability axis. Latest
radar data suggests roughly half a dozen hail-producing updrafts,
primarily located within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #608. Over the
next few hours, LLJ may increase a bit across the TX/OK Panhandle
region, and this also favors southward propagation. Large hail is
the primary concern - some stones may exceed 2 inches.
Farther north, isolated severe thunderstorms have evolved along a
surface boundary draped across northwestern NE into south central
SD. Strong boundary-layer heating proved instrumental in this
development, but nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening over the
next few hours. Until then, a MRGL risk has been added to this
region to account for isolated large hail, primarily through mid
evening.
..Darrow.. 09/09/2025
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