Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail
and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over southern SD moving quickly southeast as a larger-scale mid- to
upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior during
the period. The smaller-scale disturbance is forecast to reach the
lower MO Valley by late afternoon with an attendant belt of
moderately strong northwesterly mid- to high-level flow
overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley.
In the low levels, a cold front will advance southward across the
central Plains and lower Missouri Valley with 60s deg F surface
dewpoints ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating will contribute to
moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon with convective inhibition
eroding near the front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop from central KS eastward into the lower MO Valley during the
20-00 UTC period.
The aforementioned strong northwesterly flow in the 500 to 300 mb
layer (35-55 kt) will yield effective shear supporting organized
updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across KS and
perhaps into western MO where the main risk will be large to very
large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with
supercells, or small clusters/bowing segments where 0-2 km lapse
rates are steepest (i.e., KS). The severe threat is expected to
persist into the mid evening as several small clusters move
southeastward into southeast Kansas and adjacent portions of
northern OK and southwest Missouri.
..Smith/Bentley.. 09/03/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TMs0kt
