Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into far West Texas today.
...NM/West TX...
An upper low over western AZ will continue to track slowly eastward
today, with southwesterly mid/upper-level flow in place over much of
the southwest states. A combination of pockets of favorable daytime
heating and surface dewpoints in the lower 50s will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid
afternoon. This activity will spread across the MRGL risk area
through mid/late afternoon, posing a low-end risk of gusty/damaging
winds and hail.
..Hart/Grams.. 09/28/2025
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