Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts
today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas.
...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill
Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from
northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented
cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak
low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front
will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of
the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into
northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy.
This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm
character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced
south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout
the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement
should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south
and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely
multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and
keep the overall severe potential isolated.
There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear
from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit
more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more
storm organization and the development of more coherent linear
structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates
will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is
forecast to be modest.
Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to
destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by
most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is
anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently
over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more
neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the
front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest
buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level
flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger
convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode
should mitigate the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 09/24/2025
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