Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible from the
Southwest/southern Rockies, particularly over parts of New Mexico,
into the northern Great Plains and a portion of the Midwest, mainly
this afternoon and early evening.
...New Mexico and southern Rockies/High Plains...
A prominent upper trough will continue to shift east-northeastward
today and tonight over the Four Corners area and south-central
Rockies. DPVA/cooling aloft and plentiful moisture preceding the
trough will contribute to a relatively high coverage, and
potentially multiple rounds, of thunderstorms regionally. The 12z
observed sounding from El Paso featured Precipitable Water values in
the upper 5-10 percent of daily climatological values. Ongoing
thunderstorms/cloud cover will tend to mute diurnal destabilization
in areas, but portions of southern/eastern New Mexico may see
somewhat more aggressive destabilization pending cloud breaks. Will
defer to the ample moisture/coverage of storms and rather favorable
deep-layer flow field (40+ kt effective shear) and introduce a
categorical Slight Risk for portions of New Mexico, where hail/wind
risks, including some supercells, are most probable this afternoon
through early evening.
...Northern Plains including NE/SD/ND...
It still seems that residual cloud cover/outflow from last night's
multiple rounds of thunderstorms will tend to temper destabilization
later today within a modestly-sheared environment. Nevertheless,
some isolated severe wind/hail potential will exist as storms
redevelop across the High Plains later today.
...Midwest including portions of Illinois/Indiana...
Overall severe potential should remain relatively limited (or at
least highly uncertain), however some redevelopment and/or
reintensification could occur across downstate portion of
Illinois/Indiana, and/or farther north along the instability
gradient across northeast Illinois/Chicagoland vicinity into
northwest Indiana, where some air mass recovery is plausible. Will
maintain low hail/wind probabilities regionally given some lingering
severe potential, on a more conditional/uncertain basis with
north-northwestward extent under the increasing influence of the
upper ridge.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 09/13/2025
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