Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern
Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening,
with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threat.
...Southern/Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this
morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and
Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of
modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40
kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted,
a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into
OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing
boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually
erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of
moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates,
particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the
front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced
north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and
perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds
will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward
from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/01/2025
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