Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and
tonight.
...20Z Update...
The general thunderstorm forecast was adjusted based on
observational trends and recent guidance. See the previous
discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 08/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the
central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block
over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper
ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent
surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place
over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also
placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak
troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE
before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and
western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward
from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM.
Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from
the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional
low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued
thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well.
Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures,
should temper the overall severe potential today.
Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across
central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent
attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region.
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