Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this
afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains.
...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion for additional information.
..Wendt.. 08/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one
over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT
vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by
dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from
the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture
will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area,
with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing
that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains
into the southern High Plains.
A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend
eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks.
Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate
effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX
South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates,
ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across
the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may
result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in
diameter) and/or damaging gusts.
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