Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across
parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally
severe storms could also occur today over parts of the Sabine River
Valley.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Multiple ridge-riding mid/upper-level disturbances will transition
generally east/eventually southeastward from the central Rockies and
northern High Plains today. Weak lee-side low development will occur
across southeast Colorado and also perhaps farther north across the
central High Plains, with modestly sharpening low-level convergence
in vicinity of the lee trough. This will lead to a gradual
enhancement of low-level upslope flow particularly across
east-central/southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico.
Storms should develop/increase by mid-afternoon and gradually move
eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity, with other
development occurring near the surface boundary extending
north-northeastward into west-central Nebraska/southern South
Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute
to an axis of moderate instability by peak heating. With moderately
strong northwesterly mid-level flow persisting regionally, 35-40 kt
or greater effective shear will exist from the Raton Mesa vicinity
across the central High Plains into west-central Nebraska. A few
supercells capable of large hail may occur, with the additional
possibility of wind damage, especially with a probable clustering of
storms across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.
...Sabine River Valley...
A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms are
ongoing this morning across northeast Texas to central/southeast
Louisiana to the north of a front that will settle southward today
across the region. A related cloud canopy will extend southward into
the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should occur into the
afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the
residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or
develop near the front this afternoon, with isolated instances of
damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/29/2025
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