Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated hail and severe wind threat,
are possible across parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to
the Arklatex this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Colorado and the
adjacent High Plains.
...20Z Update...
Based on current observations and convective trends, changes were
made to the general thunderstorm forecast. The Slight risk in the
ArkLaTex vicinity was also trimmed behind ongoing convection. The
remainder of the forecast remains on track. Additional information
is found in the previous discussion below.
..Wendt.. 08/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025/
...Southern Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from
central/eastern OK southeastward across northern/central AR and into
northern/central MS. This area of precipitation is occurring along
and north of a warm-front-like boundary that extends from the TX
Panhandle southeastward through south-central OK into northeast TX.
General expectation is for the ongoing storms to persist throughout
the day, supported mainly by modest mid-level southwesterlies and
associated warm-air advection across the boundary. Additionally,
this boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the
precipitation/cloudiness continue north of the boundary, and
warm/moist conditions persist south of the boundary.
The ongoing elevated storms across southeast OK will likely continue
southeastward, likely resulting in a small corridor where diurnal
heating is possible in the vicinity of the warm front, but ahead of
the slowly progressing outflow moving across central/south-central
OK. This heating of the moist airmass in place could result in a
corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy, despite relatively warm
temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. This buoyancy coupled with
moderate deep-layer vertical shear provided by the moderate
northwesterly flow aloft could result in a few strong and organized
updrafts. Given current trends, a reintensification of cells along
the outflow appears to be the most likely convective evolution, with
the resulting linear mode favoring damaging gusts as the primary
risk. That being said, given continued low-level moisture
convergence near the warm front, more discrete development ahead of
the outflow is also a possibility. Any more discrete storms could
become supercellular, with a low-probability risk for a tornado
and/or hail, particularly near the surface boundary.
Additional development is possible this afternoon along the western
edge of the outflow across southwest OK and the TX Big Country/Low
Rolling Plains. A few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are
possible in these areas.
...Central High Plains...
Low-level upslope flow is expected to contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development the as boundary layer heats across the
central High Plains later this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow
atop low-level easterlies will result in around 35-40 kt of
effective bulk shear, which is strong enough to support organized
storm structures. This activity will spread southeastward towards
the lower terrain over time, with an attendant risk for isolated
severe hail and gusty winds.
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