Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are
possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex this
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also
possible across eastern Colorado.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
Weak short-wave trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the
central High Plains. This feature is digging southeast in line with
latest model guidance. A substantial amount of convection is
currently noted just ahead of this feature across western into south
central KS. This activity should gradually grow upscale through
sunrise as LLJ veers into northeast OK by late morning. Associated
rain-cooled boundary layer air mass will reinforce a surface
boundary currently draped across the southern Plains. Latest model
guidance suggests strong surface heating will contribute to
substantial destabilization across much of southern OK into
northeast TX, immediately south of the front. While mid-level
temperatures are seasonally warm (-4C at 500mb), and lapse rates are
not that steep, some risk for an isolated wind gusts or marginally
severe hail can be expected with the more robust convection.
Deepening northwesterly flow will encourage an MCS to spread from
northeast OK into southern AR, and the southwestern flank of this
activity will be more influenced by higher buoyancy along the Red
River corridor.
...Eastern CO...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the
day1 period as upper ridging will hold across the southern/central
Rockies. While mid-level flow is not that strong across CO,
low-level upslope flow is expected to contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development as boundary layer heats later this
afternoon. This activity will spread southeast with an attendant
risk for at least gusty winds and isolated hail.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 08/28/2025
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