Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. today, though a few stronger storms are possible
across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range where
locally gusty winds and small hail are possible.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough will be present across the eastern CONUS
today with weak ridging across the western CONUS. Surface high
pressure will weaken slightly and shift east across the Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. A cold front along the Gulf Coast
will extend into the Central Plains.
...Upper Midwest...
A region of moderate instability and shear is forecast to develop
across southern Minnesota this afternoon. A lead shortwave trough
(currently across north Dakota) is expected to move through southern
Minnesota around mid-day with weak height rises and subsidence in
its wake. However, by the evening, an additional shortwave trough
(traversing the western edge of the broader trough) may result in
isolated storm development by late afternoon/early evening. Some
forecast sounding, particularly the NAM, would support a few strong
to isolated severe storms with a threat for large hail. However,
consensus guidance is not as unstable and therefore, any severe
threat may remain mostly isolated. Therefore, no severe weather
probabilities will be included at this time.
...Central High Plains into western Kansas...
Thunderstorms across the central High Plains may congeal into a
cluster as they move into western Kansas this evening. A belt of
stronger mid-level flow (35 to 45 knots) on the southwest periphery
of the large-scale trough will provide favorable deep-layer shear
across the region. However, despite the favorable shear, weak
mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability. A few stronger
storms capable of damaging winds will be possible, but this threat
is expected to be too low/limited to warrant severe weather
probabilities.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/27/2025
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