Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern
CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure
will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur
across much of the western CONUS.
...Southern Arizona...
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient
heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the
afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a
stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind
threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited
with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and
shear than Monday.
Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated
damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized
region/threat is not apparent.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/26/2025
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