Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central
Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is
low across the remainder of the continental U.S.
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the
eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the
northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward
through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic
coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will
exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains.
Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in
widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening.
...Southern Arizona...
Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening
across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability
(1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of
stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast
to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell
storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the
higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow
with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward
through the evening.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025
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