Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the
Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon
and evening.
...Front Range/Central High Plains...
A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four
Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending
northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly
enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the
central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal
airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface
dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains
prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which
should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so,
gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the
higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope
flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should
spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near
the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail
due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft,
sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional
strong/gusty winds may also occur.
...Great Lakes/Midwest...
Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this
afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of
generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and
updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low.
..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025
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