Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the central High
Plains today.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with
strengthening mid-level flow across the Northern Plains. Surface
high pressure building into the northern Plains this morning will
advance into the central Plains by this afternoon and push a cold
front south across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, a
cold front, associated with the mid-level trough across the northern
Great Lakes, will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow in the wake of the cold front across the central High
Plains may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated
strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Terrain driven
storms are anticipated across much of the central Rockies. A few
storms are expected to move off of the higher terrain, and with
support from low-level upslope flow, maintain themselves along the
Front Range as they move south. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
around 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow will support the potential
for isolated supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts. Storm motions around 350 degrees and storm
formation expected along the mountains and immediate foothills will
result in a very narrow area of risk along the Front Range from
southeast Wyoming to central Colorado. Slightly stronger instability
across southeast Colorado and the potential for some clustering of
storms supports a slightly wider marginal extending into this
region.
...Great Lakes...
A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold
front as it moves across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Warm 700mb
temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints will limit
overall buoyancy and updraft strength. Therefore, no severe
thunderstorms are expected.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/23/2025
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