Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS/DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms from Texas across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Coast states may pose a risk for localized damaging
wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms
may also occur across eastern Montana and northern North Dakota.
...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States...
A convectively augmented effective front will continue to progress
southward, southward-shifting the potential for microburst-related
wind damage regionally. Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
will result in a moderately to strongly unstable and weakly capped
airmass by afternoon, with the strongest buoyancy (2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) expected across central/east Texas east-northeastward to
Mississippi/western Alabama/southern Tennessee. Some small-scale
clusters may evolve, but weak vertical shear will otherwise tend to
keep the overall pulse-type damaging wind potential very isolated.
...Northern Plains...
The region will be influenced by late-day/nighttime height falls as
a shortwave trough emerges eastward from the Canadian Rockies, with
an eastward-advancing cold front moving across eastern Montana into
North Dakota tonight. A narrow corridor of moderate to large
buoyancy is expected along/ahead of the surface cold front, and near
a pre-frontal surface trough. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air, mid/upper-level support for the initiation of
boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is forecast to
generally remain north of the international border.
One exception may be in the post-frontal environment across eastern
Montana. The environment would be conducive to a few severe storms
capable of hail/wind. While the risk for severe thunderstorms
appears largely conditional into North Dakota where stronger
destabilization is expected, isolated deeper convective development
is plausible across northwestern North Dakota in proximity to the
surface low/front late this afternoon, and more so this evening.
Should this occur, forecast soundings indicate the environment would
support isolated supercell development and related severe-weather
risks.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 08/20/2025
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