Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern
Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest.
...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL...
Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of
eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared
environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to
support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the
evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread
eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and
KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across
western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north
of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level
easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50
kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development
will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for
severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph.
Another area of potential development this evening is near the
surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity,
supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial
development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to
very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The
increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some
clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a
possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an
overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS
into parts of IA and northern MO.
Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this
evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and
strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared
to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some
hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS
guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central
Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday
morning, with some wind-damage potential.
...Southeast AZ...
A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts
of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized
strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend
later this evening.
..Dean.. 08/10/2025
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