Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD
INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least
isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and
surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia.
...High Plains vicinity...
Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the
central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and
evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to
transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region,
and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg)
expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level
flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of
30-40 kt.
Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain,
and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to
move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible
initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time,
which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe
gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening.
A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO,
where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of
severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High
Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat
greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated
coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will
also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will
relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong
storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the
northern Rockies.
...Carolinas into Georgia...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the
eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a
cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the
Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift
will move southward ahead of the primary front.
Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW
(greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential
for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in
some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas
of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of
the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and
placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities
may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused
corridor of wind-damage potential.
...Northeast TX vicinity...
Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from
central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests
a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX,
associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be
quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed
for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related
enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection
later today.
..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025
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