Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST
COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.
...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt
midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains
during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward
from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move
eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the
intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the
central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral
large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the
evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong
surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote
supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current
indications are that this activity will organize into one or more
organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some
75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface
boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes
will also be possible.
Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the
front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the
afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will
favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of
producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms
may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an
increasing severe-wind risk.
...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a
slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower
Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt
of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally
destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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