LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible
across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe
wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern
Rockies into the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge
persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes
established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop
across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an
embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will
encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across
portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse
will support the development of at least scattered strong
thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into
the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse
will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters,
which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given
adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe
storms are possible.
...Mid Atlantic...
Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface
temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate
eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints
will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of
strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts
are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
...Arkansas...
By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid
strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest,
surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000
J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular
clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of
which may produce a couple of damaging gusts.
...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains...
By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop
the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level
impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward
toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective
bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest
elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular
complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will
support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail
being with supercells.
..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025
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