LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern
Montana across Wyoming and Colorado.
...Mid MS Valley...
Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from
near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward
across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may
occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it
moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts
capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west,
a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite
imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over
south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features
may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of
central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to
heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s
to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and
possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this
afternoon into the evening.
...High Plains...
A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern
Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery
and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a
ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this
disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some
storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY
show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may
support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail.
Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late
this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for
severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater
across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo.
Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger
cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe
will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern
CO.
...Northeast...
A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately
unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this
afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front
will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool
temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a
risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms
that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the
severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846.
..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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