Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST TO UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and potentially a tornado
risk are expected across the middle Missouri River Valley and Upper
Midwest to upper Great Lakes, mainly this afternoon and evening.
...Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest to Upper Michigan...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early today near
and, more so, behind/north of the surface front extending generally
southwest-northeastward across South Dakota toward south-central
Minnesota. A few strong/severe storms may occur within this regime
early today across South Dakota/Minnesota, but a more appreciable
severe potential should evolve later in the afternoon as heating and
destabilization occur ahead of the front and any residual
outflows/cloud debris.
The net result should be the most aggressive heating/destabilization
across southeast/east-central South Dakota, across the southern
third of Minnesota into central Wisconsin, with 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE
plausible within this corridor. While evolution/disposition of
early-day convection are not entirely certain, a more
supercell-favorable environment with a tornado risk could evolve
this afternoon into evening across eastern Minnesota into
west-central/north-central Wisconsin within the low-level jet axis
and near/east of a surface wave. Otherwise, intensifying
thunderstorms and organizing clusters with damaging winds as the
most probable severe-weather hazard are expected to be primary
scenario regionally during the late afternoon and evening.
...Central and northern High Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, east-northeasterly low-level
winds will exist beneath moderately strong westerlies aloft to yield
relatively long hodographs, with generally 40+ kt effective shear
from the Black Hills/I-90 vicinity northward. This will coincide
with moderate diurnal destabilization, particularly across
interior/eastern Wyoming into southeast Montana and parts of the
western Dakotas. Isolated instances of large hail may occur along
with the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts, particularly
if some east/southeastward-moving clusters develop/semi-organize
during the evening.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/23/2025
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